Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 22.846075 27.384202 32.372674 38.234654 44.904883 52.228991 60.848608
2025-07-20 16.551761 22.594543 29.901833 39.262111 50.797997 64.411066 81.539666
2025-07-27 13.118644 19.850379 28.612794 40.577210 56.185634 75.541375 101.007773
2025-08-03 10.717540 17.757523 27.521874 41.584070 60.794593 85.569317 119.309938
2025-08-10 8.509007 15.416147 25.601579 41.021202 62.992051 92.336922 133.531064
2025-08-17 7.079810 13.921832 24.582550 41.442478 66.346583 100.601935 149.908770
2025-08-24 5.826218 12.439646 23.319217 41.263561 68.684266 107.442940 164.523448
2025-08-31 4.601531 10.739519 21.435331 39.859811 68.998950 111.320758 175.068745
2025-09-07 3.955088 9.958525 20.935746 40.527960 72.379981 119.645871 192.105138
2025-09-14 3.199740 8.791555 19.586827 39.623697 73.187317 124.150694 203.748444
2025-09-21 2.813120 8.307734 19.393156 40.618520 77.013638 133.265438 222.384583
2025-09-28 2.158565 7.057409 17.560713 38.534131 75.631077 134.317571 229.032724
2025-10-05 1.894476 6.712455 17.539630 39.857085 80.252807 145.259350 251.598411
2025-10-12 1.632957 6.309013 17.351703 40.873337 84.462551 155.828476 274.156872
2025-10-19 1.434151 6.016585 17.350244 42.227459 89.317457 167.611121 298.988026
2025-10-26 1.243497 5.685830 17.205641 43.266209 93.645649 178.685520 323.058204
2025-11-02 0.995490 5.080170 16.315530 42.685389 94.969003 184.826125 339.494583
2025-11-09 0.838182 4.715889 15.940460 43.120092 98.160927 194.176010 361.325567
2025-11-16 0.682027 4.284337 15.313960 42.935476 100.143369 201.516712 380.097094
2025-11-23 0.513133 3.705983 14.179119 41.486823 99.566573 204.388414 391.597068
2025-11-30 0.436414 3.488500 13.998437 42.176385 103.200409 214.705807 415.691578
2025-12-07 0.333823 3.076630 13.166878 41.243123 103.510003 219.134358 430.042847
2025-12-14 0.289369 2.943992 13.154226 42.269842 107.851191 230.906147 457.095631